@article{karmowska2022forecasting,
  title = {Forecasting Models of The Regions’  Development Potential},
  author = {Grażyna KARMOWSKA and Andrzej Sobczyk and Henryk Marjak},
  year = 2022,
  url = {https://ibimapublishing.com/articles/JESR/2022/136302/},
  journal = {Journal of Economics Studies and Research},
  volume = 2022,
  pages = 11,
  doi = 10.5171/2022.136302,
  abstract = {To assess and plan the development potential of a region, tools for forecasting and simulation of that development are needed. The choice of the model class used for forecasting purposes depends on: the nature of forecast, available information, research questions and the nature of the forecast variable. The aim of this paper is to propose models for analysis and forecasts of the potential for regional development. The development potential of a region depends on many factors. The most important ones include the region’s demographic and economic situation. To reflect these basic demographic and economic data, an index in the form of a synthetic variable was constructed. Next, SDE models for the lowest-level NUTS5 regions of Poland were estimated. According to the forecasts received, 10 municipalities will improve their development potential (demographic and economic) and shift to a higher category, whereas for 14 municipalities, the potential will decrease. The proposed predictive models can be used for analytics and forecasting when developing regional development strategies, not only at NUTS 5, but also at higher levels.},
  keywords = {development potential of the region, SDE forecasting models, potential index.},
  note = Article ID: 136302
}