Development of Techniques Threat and Risk Assessment Economic Security Transport Complex

Russia today is a dynamically developing state, which, despite external pressure, continues to strengthen its position in the world arena, timely preventing external and internal threats to economic security. Transport is one of the basic sectors of the Russian economy, meeting the needs of economic entities in the transportation of goods, and the population – in the transportation of passengers. The transport system of Russia is not only a collection of various types of freight and passenger transport, providing the processes of production and movement of people, but also a high-performance infrastructure, which includes a developed network of roads and railways, as well as a set of technical structures [1 p. 152] (Shkurina, Seslavina, Seslavin, Evdokimova, 2020). Ensuring reliable and safe operation of technical means of transport, rolling stock and infrastructure facilities is an urgent and significant socio-economic task, since it allows not only to increase the financial and economic potential of the state, but also to ensure the preservation of the life and health of its citizens, increasing the welfare of society. The state of the transport sector, trends and forecasts of its formation and development have always been in the focus of the interests of the leadership of our country, government organizations and the scientific community. This is due to the fact that the transport sector is important for the development of society in particular and the state as a whole. In recent years, large-scale changes have begun to take place in the Russian Federation, including the development of new social legislation, the implementation of targeted projects, and the formation of new concepts. Monitoring and diagnosing the degree of threats to the national interests of the state on the basis of indicators of indicators of the development of the transport sector is an important task in the existing realities of our life. By modeling threats to economic security, that is, obtaining specific values ​​of indicators of economic security, depending on their belonging to a particular class (level) of risk, it is possible to develop an appropriate action plan to improve the economic security of the transport sector based on the proposed classification. the results serve as a worthy basis for developing development strategies for the future while maintaining stability. The purpose of the study is to formulate methodological provisions for the development of the theory of economic security based on the definition of threats to the economic security of the transport sector, using the proposed model of the relationship between the key factors that affect the level of security in this area.  The authors have systematized the indicators characterizing the economic security of the transport industry. It has been proved that it is advisable to assess the economic safety of transport quantitatively in fractions or percentages of the required level, using indicators that characterize the most important aspects of the country’s transport provision and allow servicing the population and economy of the country at the required level. At the same time, it is substantiated that the threshold levels of the proposed indicators are of great importance, i.e. the limiting values, the excess of the level of which disrupts the reproduction cycle, leads to the formation of negative, destructive tendencies and, ultimately, to a decrease in the economic efficiency of the system. The study used a complex of general scientific approaches (abstract-logical, deductive, complex and systemic). The implementation of the research process was carried out using the dialectical method of cognition, which predetermines the study of economic phenomena in their relationship and development. To solve individual problems, economic and statistical methods were used, methods of comparison, absolute, relative and average values, graphical and tabular data presentation, correlation and regression analysis, clustering by the Ward’s method.