The Forecasting of Total Costs in The Enterprise in The Aspect of Security

Szymon MITKOW 1, Jarosław ZELKOWSKI 1, Bartosz KOZICKI 1 and Bogdan SOWA 2

1 Military University of Technology, Warsaw, Poland

2 The General Staff of the Polish Army, Warsaw, Poland

Abstract

The article analyzes and evaluates the total costs of the research subject. As a result, regularities in the form of a trend and slight seasonality were detected. This, in turn, became a premise for the forecasting of the historical data under consideration for the future with the use of two models: Holt ‒ Winters exponential smoothing and the Klein model. Both models were analyzed and evaluated for the remainder of the forecasting. The best method was the Klein model which was used to forecast the total costs of the research subject for 2020. It amounted to PLN 51 233 351.

Keywords: Total Costs, COVID-19, Time Series Analysis, Forecasting, Security.
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