Analysis And Forecasting of State Information Security Indicators

In the national security system of the state, special attention is paid to information security, which at the present stage is one of the main guarantees for ensuring the country’s competitiveness in world markets and the growth of its international authority. To study the threats to the information security of the Russian Federation, to predict its indicators, this study identifies groups of indicators that characterize the development of the information society (the share of gross value added of the information and communication technology sector in GDP, the development index of information and communication technologies, the balance of trade turnover of goods and services of information of communication technologies), characterizing the human resources potential of the information sphere (the share of people employed in the field of information and communication technologies, the number of students admitted to higher education organizations in the field of study “Informatics and Computer Engineering” and graduates of this direction), as well as characterizing the level of investment and innovation activity in the information sphere (the share of internal R&D costs in their total volume, the share of investments in fixed assets aimed at purchasing equipment for information and communication technologies, in their total volume, etc.). Based on the forecasts made, recommendations were developed to improve the level of information security as a tool to ensure the protection of national interests.