Mathematical Model of Economic Forecasting and Analysis of the Market Competitive Mechanism

Valentin Pau1, Marcel Stoica2 and Dan Nicolae3

 

1,3“Titu Maiorescu” University, Bucharest, Romania

2Academy of Economic Studies, Bucharest, Romania

Abstract

The mathematical models of forecasting depend upon the managers conception regarding the actions development for long — term forecasting or for short — term forecasting. To this end, we distinguish two directions: an explorative one and a normative one. From the point of view of the investigating way, the methods and models of forecasting can be synthetic (aggregated) and morphologic, with a high disaggregating  degree. If we take into consideration the nature of information that can be exact, incomplete or uncertain, it results that also the worked out models can be: deterministic, fuzzy, respectively, probabilistic ones (hybrid models can exist too). The deterministic forecasting is restricted to a single variant. The  study presented in the paper is based on a deterministic hybrid model.

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