Marina SHMAKOVA 1 and Yulia KUZNETSOVA 2
1Federal State-Funded Educational Institution of Higher Education «Ufa State Petroleum Technological University», 8 Kosmonavtov St., 450064, Ufa, Russian Federation
2Federal State-Owned Educational Institution of Higher Education «Kuzbass Institute of the Federal Penitentiary Service», 49 Prospekt Oktyabr`skij, 654066, Novokuznetsk, Russian Federation
Persistent negative factors – geopolitical tensions, armed conflicts, natural disasters, and economic disruptions, increasingly threaten the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Although the Russian Federation has improved its global ranking, the overall progress remains fragile, and existing research largely overlooks systematic classification and forecasting of regional SDG performance. This study addresses that gap by developing an original approach to ranking and portraying Russian regions in terms of SDG achievability. Using official Rosstat data for 2012–2022, we employ a predictive method within an author-defined typology. The analysis applies statistical, graphical, and longitudinal methods, with data processing performed in Python (Pandas library). A quartile-based scoring system is used to assess environmental (E), social (S), and governance (G) indicators separately, then aggregated into an overall ESG score. The study produces separate rankings for E, S, and G indicators (2012–2022), aggregate ESG rankings, and a forecast ranking to 2032. Based on these, regions are classified into four portraits: leading, developed, developing, and initial-level SDG achievers. The findings enable objective assessment of regional ESG progress and highlight priority areas for improvement.