Governance and Regional Heterogeneity in Municipal Waste Eco-Transition: County-Level Evidence from Poland

The transition towards a circular economy has increased the importance of understanding the factors that determine the effectiveness of municipal waste management systems. Although previous studies have identified numerous socio-economic determinants of waste management performance, considerably less attention has been devoted to governance-related characteristics and their spatial heterogeneity at the local level.

This study addresses this gap by investigating the determinants of municipal waste eco-transition across Polish counties during 2017–2024, with particular emphasis on governance-related characteristics of local waste-management systems and regional differences in their effects. The analysis combines balanced panel data with two-way fixed-effects models, spatial autoregressive (SAR) models, and spatial heterogeneity models incorporating voivodeship-specific interaction effects.

The results reveal significant spatial dependence in municipal waste eco-transition and substantial regional heterogeneity. Traditional socio-economic and settlement-related variables explain little of the observed variation, whereas governance-related characteristics account for a considerably larger share. Greater fragmentation of local waste-service markets is associated with lower selective collection performance, while more diversified waste-stream structures are positively related to eco-transition outcomes. Furthermore, the effects of governance-related variables and local income differ significantly across voivodeships, indicating that institutional and regional contexts shape municipal waste-management performance.

The findings demonstrate that improving municipal waste eco-transition depends less on socio-economic modernization and more on effective governance arrangements, institutional coordination, and region-specific policy design.