The Two-Year Lag: Mapping Causal Delays in the EU Economy with Bayesian Networks
Global Trade and Policy Shifts: 45EcoTrade 2025
This paper introduces a novel Bayesian network framework for modeling temporal causality in complex macroeconomic systems. This data-driven, network-based methodology directly addresses the limitations of traditional econometric models, such as VAR, which often require restrictive structural assumptions and can struggle to effectively map non-linear policy…